“Vision is not seeing the future. It’s preparing for it.”
There’s a clear divide forming in affiliate marketing right now.
Some people are still talking like commentators — focused on yesterday’s enforcement actions, rehashing old controversies, and debating what already happened.
Others are quietly doing more important work:
designing what good looks like next.
This issue is for the second group.
What You’ll Get in Chaos to Grow
• Why leadership matters more than commentary right now
• What durable affiliate programs will look like by 2026
• Why incrementality absolutely exists in affiliate marketing
• How to separate real value from “growth on paper”
• What brands should start building now
Commentary vs Leadership
Commentary explains the past.
Leadership prepares for the future.
Right now, the affiliate industry doesn’t need more hot takes.
It needs clearer thinking and steadier hands.
Enforcement actions and platform changes are signals, not endpoints.
Brands that mistake awareness for action will fall behind quietly.
The next phase of affiliate marketing won’t reward speed alone.
It will reward clarity.
What “Good” Affiliate Programs Will Look Like in 2026
Not hypothetically.
Practically.
1. Affiliate Will Be an Ecosystem, Not a Channel
Treating affiliate like a silo is already a liability.
Future-ready programs integrate:
• creators and influencers
• content and editorial
• media and communities
• loyalty and incentives
• technology and attribution partners
Affiliate becomes connective tissue across growth, not a line item.
2. Incrementality Will Matter More Than Raw Volume
This is where the conversation often goes sideways.
Yes — incrementality absolutely exists in affiliate marketing.
But it isn’t captured well by simplistic last-click models.
ncrementality means:
sales that would not have occurred without affiliate influence.
Research consistently shows that affiliate-driven shoppers:
• convert at higher rates
• spend more per order
• are more likely to be net-new customers
Affiliate content, creators, and trusted publishers influence:
• discovery
• research
• comparison
• and trust
Those impacts often happen before the final click.
Programs that only measure last touch undervalue true contribution.
Programs that measure lift, control groups, and modeled attribution uncover real growth.
3. Clicks Will Be Optional. Value Will Not.
AI agents, LLM-driven discovery, Streaming Television, Podcasts and assisted shopping are changing how customers arrive.
Some purchases will happen with fewer visible clicks.
That does not eliminate affiliate value.
It raises the bar.
Affiliates that add:
• context
• credibility
• education
• influence
will remain incremental even as mechanics evolve.
4. Governance Will Become a Competitive Advantage
Loose rules create short-term flexibility and long-term risk.
Strong programs will have:
• clear partner expectations
• enforced stand-down rules
• defined promo-code ownership
• documented exception handling
Governance doesn’t slow growth.
It protects it.
5. Experience Will Matter More Than Experimentation
This is the uncomfortable truth.
The next phase of affiliate marketing will punish learning on the job.
In a more scrutinized ecosystem:
• shortcuts surface faster
• mistakes cost more
• cleanup takes longer
Inexperienced teams often chase growth that looks good on paper.
Experienced operators focus on growth that survives scrutiny.
That difference can be worth millions.
What Breaks First in Fragile Programs
Programs built on weak foundations tend to fail quietly through:
• overreliance on one partner type
• incentives that reward behavior, not value
• attribution no one can explain
• tolerance of gray-area partners
None of this fails loudly.
It erodes until something forces attention
What You Can Start Doing Now
You don’t need a rebuild.
Start here:
• pressure-test your attribution logic
• audit partners for true contribution
• diversify intentionally
• document and enforce rules consistently
• prioritize clarity over speed
Preparation beats reaction every time.
Your Chaos Challenge This Week
Ask yourself one honest question:
If the affiliate landscape changed meaningfully next year, would our program bend or break?
The answer tells you where to focus.
Final Thought
Affiliate marketing isn’t losing relevance.
It’s maturing.
The programs that win in 2026 won’t be louder or faster.
They’ll be clearer, calmer, and built to last.
Vision isn’t predicting the future.
It’s preparing for it before everyone else realizes it’s arrived.
—Matt Frary
Chief of Chaos
